WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above ___ on July 28?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking where the price of US crude oil will land on a specific future date. WTI crude oil is the standard American oil price benchmark, and this market has three separate price targets: $79, $80, and $81 per barrel. For each one, 'Yes' means oil closes above that price on July 28, 2026, and 'No' means it closes at or below it. Higher prices make each threshold harder to clear, which is why the odds step down as the number goes up. The market settles based on the official closing price of WTI crude oil futures at the end of regular trading on July 28, 2026, pulled from a data source called Pyth. If the price is even one cent above the listed number, it resolves Yes. If it lands exactly on the number, it resolves No. One edge case worth knowing: if July 28 turns out not to be a trading day, the market splits 50-50 rather than resolving Yes or No in the normal way. The only recent news provided is about a university professor case that has no connection to oil markets. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. For this market, the developments worth watching would be changes in global oil demand, OPEC production decisions, or major geopolitical events affecting oil supply. Oil prices are notoriously hard to forecast over a year out. The market currently prices $79 at 86% and $81 at 56%, showing real uncertainty even across a narrow $2 range. Prices depend on OPEC output choices, global economic growth, US production levels, and geopolitical events, all of which can shift dramatically and unpredictably. A year is a long time in oil markets. The spread between 86% and 56% across just three dollars captures exactly how sensitive these thresholds are to normal price swings.

The odds right now

• $7993%
• $8179%
• $8360%
• $8052%
• $8239%
• $8414%
• $8510%
• $863%
• $892%
• $872%
• $882%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 28, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures (WTI) on July 28, 2026, is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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