Will gas hit __ by end of July?: how this market works

What you need to know

This is actually three separate markets bundled together, each asking whether the national average price of regular gasoline in the US will hit a specific price ceiling at any point before July 31, 2026. A Yes on the $4.25 market means gas reaches $4.25 or higher on at least one day. A Yes on the $3.70 market means gas drops to $3.70 or lower on at least one day. Each market is a different directional bet on where pump prices go. Each market is settled using the AAA national average for regular gasoline, which is updated daily on their public website. The number used is truncated, not rounded, to two decimal places, so $3.259 counts as $3.25. For the two higher-price markets ($4.25 and $4.50), the trigger is the price reaching that level or above on any single day through July 31, 2026. For the $3.70 market, the trigger is the price falling to that level or below. One day of hitting the threshold is enough. No specific recent news was provided for this market. The kinds of developments that would matter most here include changes in global oil prices, decisions by OPEC+ on production levels, shifts in US driving demand, and any major supply disruptions like hurricanes or refinery outages. Those are the signals worth watching. Gas prices are genuinely hard to forecast because they depend on global oil markets, geopolitical events, weather, and consumer demand, all of which can shift quickly and without warning. The market currently prices the $4.25 scenario at only 14% and $4.50 at 3%, suggesting traders see high prices as unlikely but not impossible. The $3.70 floor is also priced at just 3%. The main uncertainty is that any single unexpected shock, in either direction, could move prices significantly within the remaining window.

The odds right now

• ↑ $4.25-43.5 pts (1w)9%
• ↑ $4.50-4.0 pts (1w)3%
• ↓ $3.70-55.8 pts (1w)3%
• ↓ $3.60-40.5 pts (1w)3%
• ↑ $5.00-4.2 pts (1w)1%
• ↓ $3.50-4.2 pts (1w)1%
• ↓ $3.25-17.1 pts (1w)0%
• ↓ $2.50-6.7 pts (1w)0%
• ↓ $3.00-24.4 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.