XRP above ___ on August 4?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether XRP, a widely traded cryptocurrency, will be above a specific price on August 4, 2026. Three separate price thresholds are shown: $0.60, $0.70, and $0.80. For each one, a Yes means XRP is trading above that dollar amount on that day, and a No means it has fallen to or below it. Right now, the market considers all three thresholds very likely to be cleared, pricing each at around 99%. Settlement is decided by one specific data point: the closing price of the XRP/USDT trading pair on Binance, taken from the one-minute candle that closes at exactly noon Eastern Time on August 4, 2026. That single minute is all that counts, not the daily average or any other exchange. If that precise closing price is strictly higher than the threshold, it resolves Yes. If it is equal to or lower, it resolves No. Only Binance data is used, not Coinbase, Kraken, or any other platform. No specific recent news was provided for this market. In general, the things worth watching for XRP include major regulatory developments in the United States, moves by Ripple (the company behind XRP), and broad shifts in cryptocurrency market sentiment, since any of these can move the price significantly over a timeline of more than a year. The market prices all three thresholds at roughly 99%, which reflects where XRP is trading today relative to those levels. At that kind of pricing, the main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected disrupts it, not a genuine two-sided debate. Crypto markets can move sharply on regulatory news, exchange failures, or broad financial shocks. With over a year until the deadline, there is a long runway for surprises. The 99% odds say those surprises are considered unlikely by current participants, but not impossible.

The odds right now

• 0.6099%
• 0.7099%
• 0.8099%
• 0.9098%
• 1.0097%
• 1.1030%
• 1.202%
• 1.302%
• 1.601%
• 1.401%
• 1.501%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 4, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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