Yoon out of custody before 2027?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Yoon Suk Yeol, the impeached former president of South Korea, will leave state custody at any point before the end of 2026. A Yes means he physically gets out, whether fully free, on bail, on bond, or even under house arrest. A No means he stays in state custody the entire time, right through December 31, 2026. The market settles Yes if Yoon leaves state custody in any form before December 31, 2026, including release on bail, parole, or house arrest. It settles No if he remains held the whole time. One important detail: simply being moved to a different prison, hospital, or court facility does not count as a release. The market uses official government statements or a clear consensus from credible news reporting to make the final call. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kinds of developments worth watching would include updates from his ongoing trial, any court rulings on bail applications, and decisions by South Korean prosecutors or judges about his custody status. The market prices this at roughly 10%, meaning most participants expect him to stay in custody through 2026. The main remaining uncertainty is whether a court grants bail or some other form of release during what could be a long legal process. South Korean court timelines are not fully predictable, and an unexpected legal ruling or health-related development could change things quickly. The question is not whether there is any chance, but how small that chance really is.

The odds right now

• Yoon out of custody before 2027?-1.0 pts (1w)10%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of South Korea Yoon Suk Yeol is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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