Zambia National Assembly Election: 2nd Place: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which political party will finish in second place by number of seats in Zambia's parliament after the August 2026 election. A win for NRPUP means that party finishes as the runner-up, behind whoever takes first place. It is not asking who wins the election overall, just who comes in second. The three parties listed are NRPUP (National Restoration Party United for Progress), CF, and UPND (the current ruling party). After the August 13, 2026 election, the market settles based on which listed party holds the second-highest total of National Assembly seats, counting constituency winners, proportional representation members, and presidential appointees whose party is clear. If results are not officially confirmed by July 31, 2027, the market resolves as 'Other.' Ties are broken first by total votes, then alphabetically by party abbreviation. Independents count for nobody. None of the provided news headlines relate to Zambia or this election. There is no relevant recent news to draw from here. The kind of developments worth watching would be opinion polls, party alliances, candidate announcements, or any major political shifts inside Zambia in the months before the vote. The market prices NRPUP at 95% for second place, which is a very lopsided signal. The main uncertainty is simply the small chance that something unexpected happens, such as a surprise coalition, a strong independent movement, or UPND recovering ground as the incumbent party. Zambian elections can shift based on economic conditions and local candidate strength, and the vote is still over a year away. But the market is treating NRPUP as the heavy favorite for the runner-up position.

The odds right now

• NRPUP95%
• CF2%
• UPND2%
• SP1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 13, 2026

Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of Zambia are scheduled to take place on August 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-highest number of seats in the National Assembly of Zambia as a result of this election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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