Argentina Presidential Election Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple question: who will win Argentina's next presidential election? The three main candidates listed are Axel Kicillof (a Peronist governor of Buenos Aires province), Javier Milei (the current president, a libertarian economist), and Sergio Massa (a centrist who ran in 2023). A 'Yes' for any one candidate means that person ends up as Argentina's next president after the October 2027 vote, including any runoff round if no one wins outright in the first round. The market settles on whichever listed candidate officially wins the presidency, based on credible news reporting and, if needed, Argentina's official electoral authorities. Importantly, if there is a second round (a runoff between the top two finishers), that result counts, so the market isn't over after just the first vote. One edge case to know: if the final official result isn't confirmed by October 31, 2028, the market resolves as 'Other' regardless of who appears to have won. None of the provided news headlines relate to Argentina's 2027 election, they cover food recalls, Nepal, and other unrelated topics. There is no recent relevant news to point to here. What would actually matter to watch for: shifts in Argentina's economy (especially inflation), Milei's approval ratings as the sitting president, and whether Kicillof formally announces his candidacy and builds a coalition. The market is almost perfectly split between two candidates, Kicillof at 49% and Milei at 48%, which tells you the market genuinely sees this as a coin-flip. The election is still over a year away, which is a long time in Argentine politics, a country with a history of dramatic economic swings and political surprises. Milei's fate depends heavily on whether his economic reforms succeed or backfire. Kicillof's path depends on whether the Peronist opposition unites behind him. Either story could change significantly before voting day.

The odds right now

• Javier Milei+6.0 pts (1w)54%
• Axel Kicillof-5.0 pts (1w)43%
• Dante Gebel-1.4 pts (1w)2%
• Sergio Massa-0.3 pts (1w)2%
• Myriam Bregman+0.7 pts (1w)1%
• Juan Grabois+0.1 pts (1w)1%
• Mauricio Macri+0.1 pts (1w)1%
• Victoria Villarruel-0.2 pts (1w)0%
• Esteban Bullrich0%
• Facundo Manes0%
• Juan Schiaretti-0.1 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves October 24, 2027

A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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