Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple question: who will win a specific Canadian parliamentary by-election in the riding of Chicoutimi, Le Fjord? A 'by-election' is a one-seat election held outside the regular schedule, usually because the previous member of parliament left office. The winner takes that seat in Canada's House of Commons. Right now the market sees it as nearly a coin flip between Caroline Dubé and Daniel Gobeil, with Régis Gaudreault as a distant third. The market settles on whoever Elections Canada officially declares the winner of the Chicoutimi, Le Fjord by-election on August 31, 2026. The result will be confirmed using credible news reporting, with Elections Canada's official count as the final authority if anything is disputed. One edge case to know: if for any reason the official result is not confirmed by December 31, 2026, the market resolves as 'Other', regardless of who appears to be winning. None of the provided news headlines relate to this by-election or to Canadian politics at all. The headlines appear to be about unrelated international stories. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of developments worth watching for would be local polling, campaign announcements, party endorsements, or any news about the candidates themselves from Canadian sources. This race is genuinely close at the top. The market prices Dubé and Gobeil within three percentage points of each other, which means almost any shift in local conditions could change the outcome. By-elections in Canada often have low voter turnout, which makes results harder to predict because small, motivated groups of voters can have an outsized effect. The riding's political history and party affiliations matter, but without recent local polling or candidate news, the picture stays blurry right up to election day.

The odds right now

• Daniel Gobeil50%
• Caroline Dubé31%
• Régis Gaudreault6%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

A by-election for the Canadian federal electoral district of Chicoutimi—Le Fjord is currently scheduled to be held on August 31, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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