Core PCE MoM - July 2026: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks how much prices rose in July 2026, measured by a specific inflation gauge called Core PCE, which tracks what Americans spend money on but leaves out food and energy costs. A result of 0.3% means prices crept up a little that month; 0.2% means slightly less; 0.1% means price growth was very slow. The 'core' part is important: it strips out groceries and gas, which swing around a lot, to show the steadier underlying inflation trend that the Federal Reserve watches most closely. The market settles the moment the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, a government statistics agency, publishes its Personal Income and Outlays report on August 26, 2026 at 8:30 AM Eastern time. Whatever single rounded figure the BEA prints for Core PCE that month, rounded to one decimal place, is the answer. If the BEA delays the release, the market stays open until the next scheduled report. One thing to note: this is specifically the 'core' number, not the headline total inflation figure, so those two numbers can differ. None of the recent news provided is relevant to this market. The headlines cover a Florida legal case, movie recommendations, and a local housing story, none of which relate to inflation or economic data. The kind of news that would actually matter here includes fresh monthly inflation readings, Federal Reserve statements about interest rates, or major shifts in consumer spending data. Predicting a single monthly inflation reading to one decimal point is genuinely difficult, even for professional economists. The market currently spreads probability across 0.1%, 0.2%, and 0.3%, with 0.3% holding the most weight at 38% but no single outcome commanding a clear majority. Monthly data can be nudged by seasonal patterns, tariff effects, housing cost changes, or one-time price moves in specific categories. A figure of 0.25% rounds to either 0.2% or 0.3% depending on the precise decimal, so the outcome can hinge on very small movements.

The odds right now

• 0.3%38%
• 0.2%24%
• 0.1%15%
• 0.4%+9%
• -0.1%6%
• ≤-0.2%4%
• 0.0%4%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 26, 2026

This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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