Highest temperature in Chicago on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 22, 2026, what will the hottest reading of the day be at Chicago's O'Hare Airport? The answer gets sorted into a temperature range, like a bracket. The current leading bracket is 72-73°F, meaning most participants think the peak temperature that day will land somewhere in that two-degree window. A July day in Chicago typically peaks in the low-to-mid 70s, so these brackets reflect a fairly mild summer day. The market settles on whichever temperature range contains the single highest reading recorded at O'Hare Airport (station code KORD) on July 22, 2026, using Weather Underground as the official data source. The temperature is rounded to a whole degree Fahrenheit. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 23 appears on that site, so any late corrections to July 22 readings before that cutoff count, but revisions after that point do not. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. For a weather market this far out, the kind of development worth watching for would be a long-range seasonal forecast for the Chicago area in late July 2026, or any notable climate pattern like a persistent heat dome or cool air mass expected around that time. Weather forecasting more than a few days out is genuinely hard, and this market is over a year away. The difference between a 71°F day and a 73°F day is just two degrees, which is well within normal daily variation from clouds, wind shifts, or a passing storm. Even on the day itself, a single afternoon thunderstorm can hold temperatures down by several degrees. That two-degree gap between brackets makes this especially sensitive to small, hard-to-predict changes in conditions.

The odds right now

• 72-73°F48%
• 70-71°F26%
• 74-75°F21%
• 68-69°F5%
• 76-77°F4%
• 66-67°F1%
• 78-79°F1%
• 80-81°F0%
• 64-65°F0%
• 63°F or below0%
• 82°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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