Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Los Angeles get on July 22, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature reading of that day at the LAX weather station, and which two-degree range it falls into. A Yes on '78-79°F' means the hottest moment of that day lands somewhere between 78 and 79 degrees Fahrenheit, which is a mild, coastal-LA kind of summer day, not a heatwave, not unusually cool. After July 22, 2026 ends, the market checks the Weather Underground page for the LAX airport station and finds the highest temperature recorded that day, rounded to the nearest whole degree. Whichever range contains that number wins. The data is locked in once the first reading from July 23 appears on that page. Any small corrections made before that cutoff count; corrections after do not. There is no human judgment involved, just that one data point. The two news items provided have no connection to Los Angeles weather or this market. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. What would matter to watch for is any extended forecast for the LA area in the days leading up to July 22, particularly whether meteorologists flag unusual heat or a marine layer keeping coastal temperatures down. July weather in LA is genuinely consistent by global standards, but coastal conditions add real noise. The LAX station sits near the ocean, where a marine layer, a sea breeze, or an offshore flow can swing the daily high by several degrees. The market is split across three ranges with no single outcome above 38%, which reflects that spread honestly. A year out, no forecast exists yet, so this is essentially a historical pattern question until late July 2026 approaches.

The odds right now

• 78-79°F40%
• 76-77°F28%
• 80-81°F19%
• 74-75°F10%
• 82-83°F4%
• 72-73°F2%
• 84-85°F0%
• 68-69°F0%
• 70-71°F0%
• 86°F or higher0%
• 67°F or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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