Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple weather question: how hot will Mexico City get on July 22, 2026? Specifically, it asks which temperature band the day's peak heat will fall into, with 27°C (about 81°F) being the most favored answer right now, followed by 26°C and 28°C. July is deep in Mexico City's rainy season, when afternoons are warm but clouds and rain can keep the peak from climbing too high. The market settles on whichever temperature band matches the single highest reading recorded that day at the Benito Juárez International Airport weather station, pulled from the Weather Underground website. The temperature is rounded to a whole number in Celsius, so 27.4°C would count as 27°C. The reading is locked in once the first data point for July 23 appears on that site, after which any later corrections to the data are ignored. None of the recent news provided has any connection to Mexico City weather or climate conditions. There are no relevant headlines to point to here. The kind of update that would actually matter is a local forecast for July 22, 2026, which would only become reliable a few days before the date itself. Weather forecasting this far out is genuinely unreliable. July 22, 2026 is over a year away, which is beyond any meaningful forecast window. Even in the final days before, a single afternoon thunderstorm can drop the peak temperature by a degree or two compared to a sunny day. The spread across 26°C, 27°C, and 28°C is narrow, so small day-to-day variations decide the outcome. The market reflects real uncertainty across a tight range, not a clear frontrunner.

The odds right now

• 27°C46%
• 26°C23%
• 28°C18%
• 29°C10%
• 25°C6%
• 24°C2%
• 23°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 22°C or below0%
• 31°C0%
• 32°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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