Highest temperature in Toronto on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Toronto get on July 22, 2026? Specifically, it wants to pin down the single highest temperature reading of that day, measured in whole degrees Celsius at Toronto Pearson International Airport. A result of 21°C means the peak temperature that day lands exactly at 21°C, not a range, just that one number. Think of it as guessing the top of the thermometer for one specific summer day at one specific weather station. The market settles based on the highest temperature recorded at Toronto Pearson Airport on July 22, 2026, pulled from Weather Underground's historical data page for that station. The reading is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. The final number is locked in once the first data point for July 23 appears on that page. Any corrections made before that cutoff count, but corrections after it do not. Whichever temperature option matches that final reading wins. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Since the event is over a year away, the main type of development worth watching closer to the date would be seasonal forecasts or climate outlooks for summer 2026 in southern Ontario, though those only become meaningfully accurate within about two weeks of the date itself. Weather more than a year out is genuinely impossible to forecast with precision. Even on the day itself, a single degree can hinge on cloud cover, wind direction, or a storm that arrives hours earlier or later than expected. The market currently splits its weight across 20°C, 21°C, and 22°C, which reflects that spread of real uncertainty. July in Toronto averages highs around 27°C, so these options all sit on the cooler side of typical, suggesting the full range of outcomes is wider than just these three choices.

The odds right now

• 21°C39%
• 22°C24%
• 20°C19%
• 19°C9%
• 23°C9%
• 24°C1%
• 18°C1%
• 17°C1%
• 25°C1%
• 16°C or below0%
• 26°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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