How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how many separate countries Israel will drop bombs, fire missiles, or send armed drones into during the year 2026. A result of 4 means Israeli strikes hit ground in four different countries; a result of 5 means five countries, and so on. Gaza and the West Bank do not count, nor does any territory Israel itself controlled at the end of 2025. This is purely a count of foreign countries whose soil is struck. At the end of 2026, the market settles on whichever number of countries matches confirmed Israeli strikes for the year. A strike only counts if it involves an aerial bomb, missile, or drone that actually hits the ground in another country, and is confirmed either by Israel officially or by a strong consensus of credible news reporting. Intercepted missiles do not count. Artillery, naval guns, ground raids, and cyberattacks also do not count. The final number is determined by that credible-reporting standard, not by any single official source. None of the recent headlines provided relate to Israeli military strikes or the countries involved. There is no relevant news to point to here. The kind of developments worth watching would be any confirmed Israeli airstrike in a new country, ceasefire agreements, or major regional escalations that could expand or shrink the list of targeted territories. The core difficulty is that the number of countries struck depends heavily on unpredictable events: how active various fronts stay, whether new conflicts flare up, and whether ceasefires hold. We are only partway through 2026, so a lot can still change. There is also a real question about borderline cases, such as whether a particular strike gets officially confirmed or reaches the threshold of credible reporting required. The market is split fairly evenly between 4 and 5, signaling genuine disagreement rather than a clear consensus.

The odds right now

• 4+10.1 pts (1w)49%
• 5-13.9 pts (1w)33%
• 6-4.0 pts (1w)9%
• 7+0.4 pts (1w)2%
• 8-0.1 pts (1w)1%
• 11-0.3 pts (1w)1%
• 9-0.5 pts (1w)1%
• 10-0.2 pts (1w)0%
• 12-0.3 pts (1w)0%
• 15+0%
• 13-0.7 pts (1w)0%
• 14-0.1 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.