How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks how many ships passed through a narrow, critical waterway between Yemen and Djibouti during one specific week in July 2026. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is the chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, and most ships traveling between Asia and Europe use it. The three options are: fewer than 220 ships, between 220 and 229, or between 230 and 239. A higher number means more normal shipping traffic; a lower number suggests disruption or avoidance of the route. The market settles based on the official ship arrival count that IMF PortWatch publishes for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, covering every day from July 20 through July 26, 2026. Only ships in specific categories, including container ships, tankers, and bulk carriers, count toward the total. The number comes from one source only: the IMF PortWatch database. If that data is not published within 14 days, the most recent available data is used instead. Disputes about data only apply to clerical errors, not to disagreements with other tracking services. Two headlines from July 26, 2026 are directly relevant. One reports that ships are still transiting the Red Sea despite ongoing Houthi attacks, and another describes continued armed exchanges between the Saudi-led coalition and Houthi forces in Yemen. Together, these suggest the strait remains active but under real security pressure during the resolution week. The other headlines in the news feed do not appear related to this market. The core difficulty is that Houthi activity in the Red Sea has been unpredictable for years. A single escalation, ceasefire shift, or new attack pattern can move shipping volumes sharply in one direction within days. The market currently puts a 61% chance on fewer than 220 ships, suggesting participants lean toward continued disruption. But security conditions can change quickly, and shipping companies make route decisions week to week, making the exact count genuinely hard to pin down even close to the deadline.

The odds right now

• <220+15.5 pts (1w)55%
• 220-229-17.0 pts (1w)22%
• 250-259+5.3 pts (1w)10%
• 230-239+5.5 pts (1w)10%
• 240-249-2.2 pts (1w)5%
• 260+-5.3 pts (1w)4%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 26, 2026

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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