How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 3?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple counting question: how many ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz during one specific week? The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, and roughly 20% of the world's oil travels through it, along with huge amounts of other cargo. The three answer options split the week's total into ranges: under 50 (not listed, so apparently not expected), 50 to 74 ships, 75 to 99 ships, or 100 or more ships. You are essentially guessing which traffic band that week falls into. The market settles based on one specific data source: IMF Portwatch, a shipping-tracking tool run by the International Monetary Fund. It counts 'transit calls', meaning individual ship passages through the strait, covering container ships, tankers, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off vessels, and general cargo ships. Only ships that Portwatch itself reports are counted. The data covers August 3 through August 9, 2026, inclusive. If Portwatch has an obvious clerical error in its data, there is a short window for corrections before the market locks. None of the provided news headlines appear to be directly relevant to Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic this week. The headlines touch on Pakistan's oil security, economic commentary, and unrelated topics, but none report on specific disruptions, sanctions changes, or regional tensions that would clearly move ship counts up or down. The kinds of developments worth watching would be regional military activity near the strait, new sanctions affecting tanker routes, or diplomatic shifts involving Iran. The three options are closely bunched in probability, at roughly 25 to 31% each, which signals that even informed participants find this genuinely hard to call. Weekly ship counts through the strait can shift based on geopolitical tension, sanctions enforcement, seasonal energy demand, and how quickly Portwatch processes its data. The normal weekly range likely sits somewhere in the 75 to 100 zone historically, but short-term disruptions or surges can push counts outside that band. No single signal clearly favors one range over the others right now.

The odds right now

• 75-9929%
• 50-7428%
• 100+26%
• 25-499%
• <257%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 9, 2026

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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