Lima Mayoral Election Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks who will win the 2026 mayoral election in Lima, Peru, the country's capital and largest city. A Yes for any named candidate means that person wins the vote and becomes Lima's next mayor. The three candidates listed, Bruce Montes de Oca, Rubio Idrogo, and Urresti Elera, together account for 54% of the market's probability, meaning a significant share is assigned to someone not yet named in the top options. The market settles on whichever candidate is officially declared the winner of the October 4, 2026 Lima mayoral election. The result will be confirmed using credible news reporting, and if any dispute arises, Peru's official electoral bodies, the JNE and ONPE, serve as the final authority. Any mayor appointed before the election on a temporary basis does not count. If no clear result is known by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to 'Other' regardless of the reason. None of the provided news headlines relate to the Lima mayoral race. They appear to cover unrelated topics from other countries and fields. There is no relevant recent news to summarize here. The kind of developments worth watching would be official candidate registrations, polling data from Peru, endorsements from major political parties, or any changes to the election schedule. This election is over a year away, which is the biggest source of uncertainty. The candidate field is not finalized, polling is very early, and Peru's political landscape shifts quickly. The market spreads probability across three named candidates plus a large implied share for others not yet listed, reflecting how open the race still is. Past Lima elections have seen surprising results and late-breaking candidates, so the current odds reflect early guesses more than settled expectations.

The odds right now

• Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca26%
• Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo14%
• Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera12%
• Francis James Allison Oyague11%
• Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay10%
• Sandro Caller Gutiérrez10%
• Jessica Viviana Linares Romero9%
• Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza9%
• Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué7%
• Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar6%
• Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino5%
• Yehude Simón Munaro5%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves October 4, 2026

The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.