Metamask FDV above ___ one day after launch?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks how large MetaMask's total token value will be, very shortly after it launches a crypto token. FDV, or Fully Diluted Valuation, is essentially the market cap if every single token that will ever exist were counted at the launch-day price. Think of it like asking: if you multiplied the token price by all the tokens in the world, would that number be bigger than $100 million, $300 million, or $500 million? Each threshold is a separate Yes or No question. Each version of this market settles Yes if MetaMask's token FDV is above its specific dollar threshold at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after the token launches, meaning the day after it becomes freely tradable by the public. The price is pulled from the most active trading source available at that moment. There is one important catch: if MetaMask does not launch a token at all before December 31, 2026, every version of this market automatically resolves No, no matter how likely a launch seemed. No specific recent news was provided for this market. The key things to watch for are any official announcements from MetaMask or its parent company Consensys about a token launch date, any regulatory filings or partnerships that hint at timing, and broader crypto market conditions that might affect how a new token is received on its first day of trading. There are two completely separate layers of uncertainty here. First, nobody knows if MetaMask will even launch a token before the 2026 deadline, which alone could make everything resolve No. Second, even if a token does launch, first-day FDV in crypto is notoriously hard to predict: hype, market timing, token supply structure, and overall market conditions can swing valuations by hundreds of percent within hours. The market currently prices all three thresholds at roughly 13 to 14%, which reflects deep uncertainty on both layers at once.

The odds right now

• $100M-9.5 pts (1w)14%
• $500M13%
• $300M-6.0 pts (1w)13%
• $700M-1.9 pts (1w)10%
• $1B8%
• $3B+1.1 pts (1w)6%
• $2B+0.7 pts (1w)5%
• $4B-2.2 pts (1w)2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves January 1, 2027

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.