Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Mohammed Ghalibaf will lose his job as Speaker of Iran's parliament before a set date. Ghalibaf is the presiding officer of Iran's legislative body, a powerful political figure in the country. A 'Yes' means he leaves that role for any reason: resignation, removal, detention, or anything else that stops him from doing the job. A 'No' means he is still the Speaker when the deadline arrives. The market settles 'Yes' the moment Ghalibaf stops being Speaker, even if just an announcement comes before the deadline and the actual departure happens later. It also resolves 'Yes' if he is detained or otherwise blocked from doing his duties. If he is still in the role on December 31, 2026, it resolves 'No'. The source of truth is official Iranian government information or a clear consensus among credible news outlets. The available news points to serious tension between the United States and Iran in early August 2026, including reports of a paused U.S. strike, disputes over the Strait of Hormuz, and back-and-forth statements about a possible deal. This broader geopolitical pressure on Iran is relevant context, since instability at the national level can affect the political standing of senior officials like the parliamentary Speaker. Iranian domestic politics are genuinely hard to read from the outside. Ghalibaf has survived prior political turbulence, and the market prices his departure at only 10 to 15 percent, suggesting most participants see his removal as unlikely but not impossible. The main wildcards are: how the U.S.-Iran standoff develops, whether internal power struggles shift, or whether an unexpected crisis forces a political reshuffle. The biggest uncertainty is simply how opaque Iranian decision-making is to outside observers.

The odds right now

• December 31-9.5 pts (1w)14%
• September 30-2.5 pts (1w)10%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mohammed Ghalibaf ceases to be the Speaker of the Parliament of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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