Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above ___ end of July?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks a simple question: will Microsoft's stock price finish above a specific dollar amount when the market closes on the last trading day of July 2026? Three price levels are listed, $300, $315, and $330, and each one is its own separate Yes or No question. A Yes means Microsoft's stock is worth more than that number on that day. A No means it closed at or below it. The market settles based on Microsoft's official closing price on the final trading day of July 2026, pulled from Yahoo Finance's historical prices page. If the stock closes above the listed price, it resolves Yes. At or below means No. One useful edge case: if there is a stock split before July 2026, the price thresholds are compared against the split-adjusted price shown on Yahoo Finance, not the raw pre-split number. The news provided does not directly address Microsoft's stock price or business outlook. The headlines cover AI policy and Nvidia's open-weights letter, which touches the broader AI industry Microsoft operates in, but nothing here is specific enough to Microsoft's financials or stock to draw a clear connection. News worth watching would be Microsoft earnings reports, major product announcements, or shifts in AI spending by large technology companies. The market prices all three thresholds as very likely, between 93% and 96%, so the main honest uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected happens. Microsoft's stock would need a significant drop from current levels to resolve No on any of these. The real risks are hard-to-predict events: a broad market downturn, a surprise earnings miss, or a major geopolitical shock. The closer the price level is to current trading, the more sensitive it is to any sudden move.

The odds right now

• $27099%
• $300+0.1 pts (1w)96%
• $315+0.1 pts (1w)95%
• $330-0.8 pts (1w)93%
• $285-3.2 pts (1w)93%
• $345+0.5 pts (1w)92%
• $375-16.5 pts (1w)67%
• $360+10.5 pts (1w)65%
• $390-16.0 pts (1w)35%
• $405-27.5 pts (1w)23%
• $420-35.5 pts (1w)15%
• $435-34.5 pts (1w)12%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final trading day of July 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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