Next Serbia Presidential Election Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks who will win Serbia's next presidential election, which is scheduled to happen by May 2027. A Yes for any listed candidate means that person wins the presidency. The three candidates currently listed are Ana Brnabić, Vladan Đokić, and Đuro Macut. If someone not on the list wins, the market settles under a separate 'Other' category. Think of it as a simple question: of these names, whose hand gets raised at the end of election night? The market settles on whichever listed candidate wins the presidential election, including any runoff second round if no one gets enough votes in the first round. The source of truth is credible news reporting, and if there is any dispute, the official results from Serbia's Statistical Office are final. The election is expected by May 2027, but if a clear winner is still not confirmed by March 31, 2028, the whole market resolves to 'Other' regardless of what is happening on the ground. None of the provided recent headlines relate to the Serbian presidential election or Serbian domestic politics in a meaningful way. The one Serbia-related headline covers a cooperation pledge with China on technology, which does not directly affect the election picture. The development most worth watching for would be any announcement of an early election date, a major candidate entering or leaving the race, or significant shifts in Serbian public opinion polling. Several real unknowns make this genuinely difficult to call. The election is still up to two years away, which is a long time in politics anywhere. It is also unclear whether the election will be held on schedule or called early, which could change the candidate field entirely. The three listed candidates split roughly 81% of the market between them, with no single frontrunner far ahead, suggesting real disagreement among those following this. Serbian political dynamics, including the influence of the ruling party and public protest movements seen in recent years, add further unpredictability.

The odds right now

• Ana Brnabić-3.5 pts (1w)39%
• Vladan Đokić+8.5 pts (1w)21%
• Đuro Macut+2.5 pts (1w)18%
• Miloš Vučević13%
• Vladan Petrov-4.5 pts (1w)6%
• Aleksandar Vučić-0.1 pts (1w)3%
• Miloš Jovanović+1.5 pts (1w)3%
• Zdravko Ponoš+2.5 pts (1w)3%
• Savo Manojlović1%
• Ivica Dačić-2.2 pts (1w)1%
• Vojislav Šešelj+0.4 pts (1w)1%
• Branimir Nestorović0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves May 1, 2027

The next Serbian presidential election is currently expected to be held by May 1, 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next Serbian presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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