NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above ___ on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether NVIDIA's stock will close above a specific price on July 24, 2026. There are three separate price targets: $200, $205, and $210. Each one is its own question. A Yes means NVIDIA's closing price that day is strictly higher than the listed number. A No means it closes at or below it. The three odds together give a rough picture of where the market thinks NVIDIA's price will land: comfortably above $200, likely above $205, and roughly a coin flip above $210. Settlement is simple: whatever price Pyth, a financial data service, records as NVIDIA's official close on July 24, 2026 is compared to each target. If the close is even one cent above the target, it resolves Yes. If it equals the target exactly, it resolves No. One important edge case: if July 24, 2026 turns out not to be a regular trading day, all three markets resolve 50-50, meaning no side wins outright. Stock splits would also adjust the target prices proportionally, so a split would not distort the outcome. None of the provided news headlines relate directly to NVIDIA or its stock price. One headline mentions Intel seeing gains tied to AI optimism, which touches the same industry, but that is a separate company. There is no NVIDIA-specific news in the provided feed to point to. The kind of developments worth watching would be NVIDIA earnings reports, US chip export policy changes, or broader shifts in AI spending by major tech companies. Stock prices over a year-long horizon are genuinely hard to predict, and a lot can change. The $200 target is priced at 98%, meaning the market sees it as very likely, and the main uncertainty there is simply whether something unexpected and significant happens, not a real two-sided debate. The $210 target at 61% is much more of an open question. Risks include new export restrictions on AI chips, a slowdown in data center investment, broader market downturns, or a stock split that reshuffles the numbers, as well as positive surprises that could push the price higher.

The odds right now

• $20584%
• $20051%
• $21549%
• $21049%
• $22010%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on July 24, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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