Will Occidental Petroleum (OXY) beat quarterly earnings?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Occidental Petroleum will earn more profit per share than analysts currently expect when it reports its next quarterly results. Earnings per share, or EPS, is a simple measure: take the company's profit for the quarter and divide it by the number of shares. Analysts have set a target of $1.88 per share. A Yes means OXY beats that number. A No means it hits exactly $1.88 or falls short. When Occidental releases earnings on or around August 5, 2026, the official non-GAAP EPS figure in its earnings documents is compared to $1.88. Non-GAAP EPS is the profit number companies report after removing certain one-time costs, which analysts typically focus on. If OXY reports $1.89 or higher, it resolves Yes. At $1.88 or below, it resolves No. One edge case worth knowing: if OXY delays its report by more than 45 days past August 5, the market automatically resolves No regardless of the reason. No recent news directly about Occidental Petroleum or oil and gas earnings was provided. The one headline available is about technology stocks and AI spending, which has no clear connection to this market. The kind of news that would matter here includes oil price movements, OXY production updates, or any company guidance revisions in the weeks before the August report. The market prices this at around 78%, meaning participants lean toward a beat, but a meaningful chance of a miss remains. The biggest wildcard is oil prices: OXY's profits are closely tied to the price of crude, which can swing sharply in either direction due to OPEC decisions, global demand shifts, or geopolitical events. Analyst estimates can also move between now and August, changing the target itself. With over a month still to go, a lot can change.

The odds right now

• Will Occidental Petroleum (OXY) beat quarterly earnings?78%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 5, 2026

As of market creation, Occidental Petroleum is estimated to release earnings on August 5, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Occidental Petroleum’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.88 as of market creation. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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