Paraná Governor Election Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple question: who will be the next elected governor of Paraná, one of Brazil's southern states? A win for Sergio Moro means he becomes governor after the October 2026 election. A win for Requião Filho or Guto Silva means one of them does instead. The market is not about polls or predictions, it is about the actual election result. The market settles based on whoever the official winner is, as confirmed by Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (the TSE, the body that runs and certifies Brazilian elections). The first-round vote is October 4, 2026, and if no candidate gets a majority, a runoff happens on October 25. The market closes October 5 but will wait for the final certified result. If the outcome is still unknown by June 30, 2027, it resolves as 'Other', meaning no listed candidate wins. None of the provided news headlines are relevant to the Paraná governor's race. They all relate to United States political primaries. There is no recent news about this specific market to point to. What would matter to watch for: polling from Paraná, candidate announcements, any major political alliance shifts in Brazil ahead of the 2026 election season. The market prices Sergio Moro at 79%, which is a strong lean, but the election is still over a year away. A lot can change: candidates may enter or drop out, national political dynamics in Brazil can shift quickly, and alliances often form or collapse in the months before a vote. Moro is a well-known national figure, but local dynamics in Paraná matter too. The main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected disrupts what is currently a heavily one-sided picture.

The odds right now

• Sergio Moro-4.5 pts (1w)79%
• Requião Filho11%
• Guto Silva+2.9 pts (1w)7%
• Enio Verri+3.5 pts (1w)4%
• Alexandre Curi+3.5 pts (1w)4%
• Rafael Greca-0.1 pts (1w)3%
• Beto Richa+2.2 pts (1w)3%
• Luiz França2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves October 5, 2026

The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.