Philippines, Cavite 4th Congressional District Special Election Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks who will win a special election in Cavite, a province south of Manila in the Philippines, to fill one open seat in the national legislature. A 'Yes' for Jennifer Austria Barzaga means she wins that congressional seat. A 'Yes' for either of the other candidates means one of them wins instead. Think of it like asking: when voters in that one district go to the polls, whose name comes out on top? The market settles based on whoever is officially declared the winner of the August 29, 2026 special election, using results confirmed by COMELEC, the Philippines' official election commission. If there is a runoff or second round, that result counts too. One important edge case: if the official result is still unclear or disputed past March 31, 2027, the market does not pick a winner and instead resolves to a catch-all 'Other' outcome, meaning nobody on the current list wins in the market's eyes. None of the provided news headlines relate to this Philippine special election. They cover U.S. and other unrelated political events. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of developments worth watching for would be candidate announcements, COMELEC confirmations of the ballot, local political endorsements in Cavite, or any news about the seat becoming vacant. The market is heavily one-sided, pricing Barzaga at 96%, so the honest picture is this: the main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected disrupts the strong frontrunner status she currently holds. That could mean a late candidate entry, a legal challenge, a shift in local political alliances, or logistical issues with the election itself. The election is still over a year away, which is a long time in any political environment. Surprises are rare at these odds, but they are not impossible.

The odds right now

• Jennifer Austria Barzaga96%
• Raul Rex Del Rosario Mangubat4%
• Leysander Aguilar Ordenes1%
• Jacinto Bautista Frani Jr.1%
• Marvin Opamin Dupal-ag1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 29, 2026

A special election is currently scheduled for August 29, 2026 to fill the 4th congressional district seat of Cavite in the Philippine House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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