Squid FDV above ___ one day after launch?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks how large Squid's crypto token will be, measured by its total implied value, one day after it launches. Squid is a cross-chain routing protocol (it helps move assets between different blockchains). The number being tested is the 'Fully Diluted Valuation', or FDV, which is simply: if you took every token that will ever exist and multiplied by the current price, what dollar figure do you get? So a $50M FDV means the entire token supply, at that price, would be worth $50 million. Yes means it clears that size. No means it falls short, or the token never launches. The market settles Yes if Squid's official token has an FDV above the stated threshold at 4:00 PM Eastern Time on the calendar day after launch. The FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by price, using the most liquid available trading source at that moment. A few important edge cases: the token must be Squid's own official token, and stablecoins, memecoins, and similar token types do not count. If Squid never launches a token before January 1, 2028, the whole market resolves No regardless. No relevant news about Squid's token launch was provided. The one headline in the feed is unrelated to this market entirely. The key thing to watch for would be any official announcement from Squid about a token launch date, tokenomics details, or a confirmed launch event, as those would directly affect how this resolves. The biggest uncertainty is simply whether Squid launches a token at all before the 2028 deadline, and if so, when. Even if a launch happens, early token prices are notoriously volatile and hard to forecast: initial FDV can spike or drop dramatically within hours based on exchange listings, market conditions, and hype. That said, the market currently prices the $30M threshold at 98%, suggesting traders see it as very likely if a launch occurs. The main remaining uncertainty at higher thresholds is how strong early demand turns out to be.

The odds right now

• $30M+5.5 pts (1w)98%
• $40M+1.5 pts (1w)88%
• $50M-4.5 pts (1w)80%
• $75M-10.0 pts (1w)56%
• $100M-11.0 pts (1w)33%
• $150M-13.5 pts (1w)14%
• $200M-1.5 pts (1w)9%
• $300M-1.0 pts (1w)5%
• $400M-1.9 pts (1w)1%
• $600M-2.1 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves January 1, 2028

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Squid's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Squid will qualify. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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