StandX FDV above ___ one day after launch?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how valuable StandX's crypto token will be, very shortly after it first becomes available to the public. 'Fully Diluted Valuation' (FDV) is a way to measure a token's total market size: take the price of one token and multiply it by the total number of tokens that will ever exist. There are three separate yes/no questions here, each with a different size threshold: $50 million, $100 million, and $200 million. A 'Yes' means StandX launches and hits that size. A 'No' means it either launches smaller or never launches at all. Each version resolves 'Yes' if StandX's token FDV is above that dollar threshold at exactly 4:00 PM Eastern Time on the day after the token goes live for public trading. The price used will come from whichever trading venue has the most activity at that moment. There is one important edge case: if StandX does not launch a publicly tradable token before midnight on December 31, 2026, all three markets automatically resolve 'No', regardless of anything else. A private or restricted token release would not count as a launch. There is no specific recent news available for this market right now. The things most worth watching for would be any official announcement from StandX about a token launch date, details about how many total tokens will exist, and any early exchange listings or trading partnerships, since all of those would directly affect the FDV calculation at launch. Several layers of uncertainty stack on top of each other here. First, nobody outside the team knows if or when StandX will launch a token. Second, even if a launch happens, early crypto token prices are famously unpredictable: hype, exchange choice, and market conditions on that specific day all move the number significantly. Third, the three thresholds are surprisingly close to each other in odds (57 to 61 percent), which suggests the market sees the $50M, $100M, and $200M bars as nearly equally uncertain, meaning a wide range of outcomes feels plausible.

The odds right now

• $50M-8.0 pts (1w)61%
• $200M-4.0 pts (1w)57%
• $100M-9.0 pts (1w)56%
• $400M+3.0 pts (1w)34%
• $800M -1.5 pts (1w)18%
• $1B+2.0 pts (1w)17%
• $2B-0.7 pts (1w)7%
• $3B-1.3 pts (1w)5%
• $5B+1.2 pts (1w)4%
• $7B+1.8 pts (1w)4%
• $10B+0.1 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves January 1, 2027

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of StandX's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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