Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how valuable Probable's future crypto token will be on its first full day of trading. 'FDV' stands for Fully Diluted Valuation, which is a way to measure a token's total theoretical worth: you take the token's price and multiply it by the total number of tokens that will ever exist. The three price targets here ($100M, $200M, $300M) are like asking 'will this project be worth at least that much on day one?' Yes means it hits the target, No means it falls short or never launches. Each version of this market settles based on a single snapshot: the token's price at 4:00 PM Eastern Time on the day after Probable's token launches publicly. That price gets multiplied by the total token supply, and if the result is above the target number, it resolves Yes. The token must be genuinely tradable by the public to count as a launch. One important edge case: if Probable never launches a token before December 31, 2027, all three markets automatically resolve No, regardless of anything else. There is no specific recent news available about Probable or its token launch plans. The things worth watching for would be any official announcement from Probable about a launch date, details about their tokenomics (total supply and initial price range), and broader crypto market conditions around the time of launch, since market sentiment heavily influences new token valuations. Several layers of uncertainty stack on top of each other here. First, it is unknown whether or when Probable will even launch a token. Second, new token valuations on launch day are notoriously hard to predict, they can swing wildly based on hype, market timing, and early trading volume. Third, FDV specifically captures the full theoretical supply, so the total token count matters as much as the price. The deadline is years away, which adds more time for circumstances to change in any direction.

The odds right now

• $300M+3.4 pts (1w)30%
• $200M+12.4 pts (1w)23%
• $100M-0.6 pts (1w)13%
• $50M-0.5 pts (1w)13%
• $400M+4.0 pts (1w)12%
• $800M-0.9 pts (1w)8%
• $500M-0.1 pts (1w)6%
• $1B-1.1 pts (1w)4%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves January 1, 2028

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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