Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Turkey will officially re-enter the F-35 fighter jet program by a set deadline. Turkey was originally a partner in the F-35 program but was removed in 2019 after it bought a Russian air defense system called the S-400. A Yes outcome means Turkey is formally back in, either as a full partner or as a buyer through an official U.S. government arms sale process. A No means talks and promises happened, but no binding official step was taken. The market settles Yes only when something concrete and official happens: Turkey is listed as a partner or customer by the F-35 Joint Program Office, or the U.S. government confirms Turkey has signed a formal arms sale agreement for F-35 jets or components. The deadline for the earlier version is December 31, 2026, and for the later version is June 30, 2027. Crucially, announcements of interest, negotiations, or even sanctions relief do not count. Only a signed deal or an official listing qualifies. None of the provided news headlines relate to Turkey, the F-35 program, or U.S. defense policy. There is no relevant recent news to summarize here. The kinds of developments worth watching would be: official U.S. government statements about an arms sale letter being signed, any announcement from the F-35 Joint Program Office, or news about Turkey disposing of or deactivating its Russian S-400 system, which is a widely cited obstacle to rejoining. The core obstacle is political and legal, not technical. U.S. law restricts selling F-35s to countries that operate Russian S-400 systems, and Turkey has not publicly given up its S-400. Even if both governments want a deal, Congress could block it. Diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Turkey shift frequently, adding another layer of unpredictability. The market also sets a very high bar: statements and negotiations explicitly do not count, so even a lot of visible progress could still result in a No.

The odds right now

• June 30, 2027-25.5 pts (1w)36%
• December 31, 2026-3.5 pts (1w)11%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2027

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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