Ulyanovsk Oblast Gubernatorial Election Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple question: who will win the governor's race in Ulyanovsk Oblast, a region in Russia, in September 2026? Alexey Russkikh is the current governor running for the position, and Marina Kim is listed as a challenger. A Yes on Russkikh means he keeps his job after the election; a Yes on Kim means she defeats him and takes over as governor. The market settles based on who officially wins the Ulyanovsk Oblast gubernatorial election on September 20, 2026, including any runoff round if one is needed. The result is confirmed using credible news reporting, and if those sources are unclear, official Russian election commission results decide it. One important edge case: a caretaker or temporary governor appointed outside the election does not count. If no clear winner is known by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to a catch-all 'Other' option. None of the recent news provided relates to this market. There are no headlines about Ulyanovsk Oblast, its election, or either candidate. The kinds of developments worth watching for would be candidate registration announcements, any replacement of Russkikh before the election, or unusual political moves from the Kremlin regarding regional leadership. The market prices Russkikh at 98%, which is very lopsided, and that reflects a real pattern: incumbent governors in Russian regional elections almost always win, typically with strong institutional support and limited competition. The main uncertainty here is not a close race but simply whether something unexpected disrupts that pattern, such as Russkikh being removed before the vote or the election being postponed. Those events are rare but not impossible, which is why the odds sit at 98% rather than 100%.

The odds right now

• Alexey Russkikh98%
• Marina Kim1%
• Yulia Yasaytis1%
• Sergey Marinin0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 20, 2026

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Ulyanovsk Oblast on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Ulyanovsk Oblast gubernatorial elections. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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