Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks which of three named candidates will finish in the top two on election day, earning a spot in the second-round runoff. Brazil's presidential election works in two rounds: if nobody wins more than 50% of the vote in round one, the top two finishers go to a runoff a few weeks later. A 'Yes' for a candidate means they made it to that second round (or won outright in round one). A 'No' means they were eliminated in round one. The market settles based on the official first-round results from Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE) on October 4, 2026. If a candidate finishes in the top two, or wins outright with more than 50%, they resolve Yes. If they finish third or lower, they resolve No. There is one notable edge case: if someone wins outright in round one but that person is not the listed candidate, the listed candidate still resolves No, even if they came second. Results must be confirmed by June 30, 2027. One relevant piece of news: Lula was officially nominated for a fourth presidential term as of early August 2026. That confirms he is running. The other headlines in the feed, about currency markets and elections in India, have no connection to this Brazilian market. There is no recent news provided about Flavio Bolsonaro or Renan Santos that is directly relevant to their candidacies. The main uncertainty differs by candidate. For Lula at 95%, the market already treats his runoff spot as nearly certain, so the real question is just whether something unexpected happens. For Flavio Bolsonaro at 85%, the market is confident but not as settled, reflecting that the right-wing vote could split or consolidate around a different figure. Renan Santos at 11% is the biggest open question: the market sees him as a long shot, but the race is still over a year away and Brazilian polling can shift significantly.

The odds right now

• Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva+0.8 pts (1w)95%
• Flavio Bolsonaro+1.5 pts (1w)85%
• Renan Santos+0.5 pts (1w)11%
• Ronaldo Caiado+0.1 pts (1w)5%
• Romeu Zema+0.5 pts (1w)4%
• Michelle Bolsonaro-0.5 pts (1w)3%
• Jair Bolsonaro-0.8 pts (1w)1%
• Fernando Haddad-0.8 pts (1w)1%
• Tarcisio de Frietas-0.8 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves October 4, 2026

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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