Which cities will Waymo launch in by December 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Waymo, the self-driving car company, will open its robotaxi service to ordinary members of the public in Tampa, San Diego, and Denver before the end of 2026. A 'Yes' means any person can open an app, request a Waymo ride in that city, and get one, with no human driver at the wheel. A 'No' means that never happened, whether because Waymo skipped the city, ran out of time, or only ran limited tests there. Each city resolves 'Yes' the moment any member of the public can hail a driverless Waymo through the Waymo One app, Uber, or another official Waymo platform in that city, any time before December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The key bar is truly open access: invite-only programs, employee pilots, and waitlist-only tests do not count. Waymo's own announcements are the primary source, but consistent credible news reporting can also settle it. None of the provided news headlines relate to Waymo or its expansion plans. There is no recent news to point to here. The kind of development worth watching for would be an official Waymo announcement naming a new city, a regulatory permit being granted in one of these markets, or a confirmed partnership with a local transit authority. The market prices Tampa at 96%, San Diego at 86%, and Denver at 83%, so participants strongly expect all three launches to happen. At those odds, the main uncertainty is not 'will Waymo expand?' but simply whether something unexpected blocks it: a regulatory delay, a serious safety incident that pauses operations nationally, a slower-than-planned fleet rollout, or a decision by Waymo to prioritize other markets. None of those outcomes look likely to the market right now, but none are impossible either.

The odds right now

• Tampa, FL96%
• San Diego, CA+4.5 pts (1w)86%
• Denver, CO-0.5 pts (1w)83%
• Las Vegas, NV-2.5 pts (1w)79%
• Charlotte, NC-0.5 pts (1w)57%
• Detroit, MI+1.0 pts (1w)53%
• Philadelphia, PA+2.0 pts (1w)51%
• New Orleans, LA-3.5 pts (1w)49%
• Tokyo, Japan-0.5 pts (1w)49%
• St. Louis, MO+2.0 pts (1w)48%
• Pittsburgh, PA41%
• Sacramento, CA-9.0 pts (1w)32%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Waymo begins offering its ride-hailing service to the general public within the listed city by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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