Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by July 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Anthropic, the AI company behind Claude, will reach a specific company value (either $1.05 trillion, $1.15 trillion, or $1.25 trillion, depending on which version you are looking at) at any point before the end of July 2026. Because Anthropic is still a private company, its value is not set by a public stock price. Instead, a service called Nasdaq Private Market tracks what investors are paying for shares in private trading, and that figure is used as the valuation here. The market settles as Yes if Nasdaq Private Market's published price for Anthropic shares, at any single point between the market's creation and July 31, 2026, implies a total company value at or above the listed threshold. It only needs to hit the number once, not stay there. If NPM stops publishing data, the market may also consider an IPO price or public stock price if Anthropic goes public before then. Importantly, if Anthropic gets acquired and stops being independent, only valuations before that deal closes will count. None of the recent news provided relates to Anthropic, its valuation, fundraising, or any IPO plans. There is nothing relevant to point to here. The kinds of developments that would matter to watch for include new funding rounds, large customer contracts, regulatory actions affecting AI companies, or any public statements about an IPO. Private company valuations are genuinely hard to track because they are not updated constantly like a stock price. NPM only publishes data once per trading day, and private share prices can move in unpredictable ways tied to fundraising rounds or secondary trading. The three thresholds here sit at 23%, 14%, and 13% odds, meaning the market currently sees even the lowest target as more likely to miss than hit. The main uncertainty is whether new investment activity or an IPO could push the valuation to those levels before July ends.

The odds right now

• ↓$1.05T+18.0 pts (1w)26%
• ↑$1.15T-56.5 pts (1w)16%
• ↑$1.25T+1.7 pts (1w)11%
• ↑$1.35T-0.7 pts (1w)3%
• ↓$1.0T-1.8 pts (1w)1%
• ↑$1.5T-0.3 pts (1w)1%
• ↓$900B-0.3 pts (1w)1%
• ↓$800B+0.1 pts (1w)1%
• ↑$2.0T+0.1 pts (1w)0%
• ↑$1.75T0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 1, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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