How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 27?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how many commercial ships will pass through the Strait of Hormuz during one specific week. The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, and it is one of the most important shipping lanes in the world, carrying a large share of global oil and gas. The three answer ranges give you a picture of how busy or quiet that passage is: roughly 75 or more ships would be a normal-to-busy week, 25 to 74 would be noticeably reduced traffic, and under 25 would signal a serious disruption. The market settles based on the total ship count that the IMF's Portwatch tracking tool reports for the Strait of Hormuz from July 27 through August 2, 2026, all seven days included. The ships counted are commercial types: container ships, tankers, dry bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off vessels, and general cargo ships. Only what Portwatch publishes counts, even if other trackers show different numbers. If Portwatch does not publish the data within 14 days after the period ends, the market resolves on whatever data is available at that point. One headline is genuinely relevant here: a report dated July 27 says Houthi forces claimed drone strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure. The Houthis, based in Yemen, have previously targeted shipping in the region, and any escalation near the Arabian Peninsula could affect ship movements through the Strait. The other headlines in the provided news do not relate to this market. It would be worth watching for any follow-up reporting on that incident and whether it affects vessel routing decisions in the area. The biggest unknown is geopolitical: the region around the Strait of Hormuz can shift quickly, and a single escalation, such as the Houthi strike claim in the news, could cause shipping companies to reroute or delay transits. Beyond that, the market is split almost evenly between the two middle ranges, 25 to 49 and 50 to 74, meaning there is genuine disagreement about baseline traffic levels right now. Normal weekly traffic through the strait can vary, and IMF Portwatch's counting methodology adds a layer of uncertainty since it may not capture every vessel.

The odds right now

• 50-7437%
• 25-4936%
• <259%
• 75-995%
• 100+5%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 2, 2026

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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