WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above ___ on July 27?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking where the price of US crude oil will be on a specific day next year. WTI crude oil is the main American oil benchmark, and its price moves constantly based on supply, demand, and global events. There are three separate yes/no questions bundled here: will oil close above $85, above $86, or above $87 on July 27, 2026? A Yes on any of those means oil finished that day above that dollar threshold. A No means it closed at or below it. The market settles based on the official closing price of WTI crude oil futures on July 27, 2026, pulled from a data service called Pyth. The closing price is taken from the final minute of the regular trading session that day. If the price is exactly equal to the threshold, it resolves No. If July 27 turns out not to be a trading day for any reason, the market splits 50-50 instead of resolving Yes or No. No rounding is applied to the price. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kinds of developments worth watching over the coming year would include OPEC production decisions, changes in US oil output, shifts in global economic growth forecasts, and any major geopolitical events affecting oil-producing regions, since all of these tend to move crude oil prices meaningfully. Oil prices are genuinely difficult to forecast even a few weeks out, let alone over a year away. The market currently prices the $85 threshold at 35%, $86 at 28%, and $87 at 18%, reflecting real uncertainty across all three levels. Supply decisions by OPEC, unexpected recessions, conflicts near oil infrastructure, and currency shifts can all push prices sharply in either direction. A year is a long time in energy markets, and conditions today tell us relatively little about where prices land on one specific day in July 2026.

The odds right now

• $8514%
• $866%
• $873%
• $883%
• $903%
• $893%
• $942%
• $912%
• $922%
• $931%
• $951%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 27, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures (WTI) on July 27, 2026, is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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