Zambia National Assembly Election: Party Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which political party will win the most seats in Zambia's parliament after the August 2026 election. A Yes for UPND means President Hakainde Hichilema's ruling party holds onto its parliamentary majority. A win for CF or NRPUP would mean one of the smaller opposition parties pulled off a major upset and took more seats than the governing party. The market settles on whichever named party holds the largest number of National Assembly seats after the election, counting seats won by direct vote, proportional representation lists, and presidential appointments together. If official results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, the market resolves as 'Other.' In a tie on seats, total votes cast break the tie. Independent candidates do not count toward any party's total. None of the provided news headlines relate to Zambia or this election. There is no recent relevant news to point to here. The kind of developments worth watching would be shifts in Zambia's economic conditions, opposition party unity or fragmentation, and any official electoral commission announcements ahead of the vote. The market is heavily one-sided, pricing UPND at 96%, so the main honest uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected happens. UPND won a landslide in 2021 and holds the incumbency advantage, which explains the lopsided odds. The realistic risks are things like economic discontent, a united opposition, or logistical problems with the election itself. Those are genuine but currently low-probability scenarios according to the market.

The odds right now

• UPND97%
• NRPUP2%
• SP1%
• CF1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 13, 2026

Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of Zambia are scheduled to take place on August 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Zambia as a result of this election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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