Aligned Layer FDV above ___ one day after launch?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks how valuable Aligned Layer's token will be, measured one day after it launches. FDV, or Fully Diluted Valuation, is the total number of tokens that will ever exist multiplied by the price of one token at that moment. Think of it like asking: if every share of a company were counted, what would the whole company be worth? There are three separate thresholds here: $20 million, $50 million, and $100 million. Each one is its own Yes-or-No question about where that value lands. Each threshold resolves Yes if Aligned's official token price, multiplied by its total supply, exceeds that number at exactly 4:00 PM Eastern Time on the day after the token launches. The price used will be from the most liquid trading source available at that moment. A few important rules: only the official Aligned token counts, and it must be actively tradable on a public market. If Aligned does not launch any qualifying token before December 31, 2027, all three thresholds automatically resolve No. There is no specific recent news available for this market right now. The kinds of developments that would matter most are: an official announcement from Aligned Layer about a token launch date, broader crypto market conditions around the time of launch, and any news about the project's partnerships or technology milestones that could influence early investor interest. The core challenge is that nobody knows when, or whether, Aligned Layer will launch its token, and early crypto token prices can swing dramatically in the first 24 hours depending on market conditions, hype, and liquidity. The market currently prices $20M at 79%, $50M at 68%, and $100M at 64%, suggesting most participants expect a launch with meaningful valuation, but that still leaves real room for surprises. Crypto launches are notoriously hard to call, and a lot can change between now and end of 2027.

The odds right now

• $20M-2.1 pts (1w)71%
• $50M-8.5 pts (1w)64%
• $100M+0.5 pts (1w)63%
• $200M-4.0 pts (1w)38%
• $300M-1.0 pts (1w)20%
• $800M+8.8 pts (1w)13%
• $500M+0.1 pts (1w)11%
• $1B5%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves January 1, 2028

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Aligned's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Aligned will qualify. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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