Tread FDV above ___ one day after launch?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how valuable Tread's crypto token will be, very shortly after it launches. The specific number in the title is the target: if the token's total implied value clears that threshold one day after launch, it resolves Yes. 'FDV' or Fully Diluted Valuation is a way to measure the total size of a crypto project, calculated by taking the token's price and multiplying it by every token that will ever exist, not just the ones in circulation yet. Think of it like the full asking price of the whole project. One day after the token launches, specifically at 4:00 PM Eastern Time on that following calendar day, someone checks the token's price on the most active trading platform available. That price gets multiplied by the total number of tokens that will ever exist. If the result is above the dollar figure in the market title, it resolves Yes. If Tread never launches an official token before January 1, 2028, the whole market resolves No. Memecoins or stablecoins launched under the Tread name would not count. There is no specific recent news available for this market. The things worth watching for would be any official announcement from Tread about a token launch date, details about their tokenomics (how many tokens will exist and how they will be distributed), and any broader shifts in crypto market conditions that could affect how new token launches are received. Several genuinely open questions make this hard to call. First, Tread has not launched a token yet, so the timing is unknown and a launch might not happen at all before 2028. Second, even if it launches, the price one day after launch can be extremely volatile and hard to predict, since new crypto tokens often swing dramatically in their first hours. Third, overall crypto market conditions at the time of launch will matter a lot, and those are impossible to know in advance.

The odds right now

• $20M+15.0 pts (1w)76%
• $5M-18.6 pts (1w)75%
• $40M+11.0 pts (1w)53%
• $80M+8.5 pts (1w)31%
• $100M+8.5 pts (1w)30%
• $150M+9.0 pts (1w)28%
• $300M+18.0 pts (1w)25%
• $200M-11.8 pts (1w)12%
• $400M+0.1 pts (1w)3%
• $500M-0.4 pts (1w)2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves January 1, 2028

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Tread's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Tread will qualify. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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