US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how high US tariffs are in practice, measured as a single percentage: total customs tax collected divided by the total value of all goods imported. Think of it as the average tax rate paid on every dollar of foreign goods entering the US. A Yes on the 7%+ market means the US is collecting at least 7 cents in tariff for every dollar of imports. For context, the US effective tariff rate was around 2-3% for most of the past decade, so even 5% would represent a historically large jump. Each of the three markets (5%+, 6%+, 7%+) resolves Yes if the official figure from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis meets or exceeds that threshold for April through June 2026. The number comes from a specific FRED dataset: customs duties collected divided by total imports, multiplied by 100. If the Fed does not publish Q2 2026 data by December 31, 2026, all unresolved markets automatically resolve No. Only the first published figure counts, unless it contains a clear technical or typing error. A headline from July 24 mentions Trump unveiling new tariffs designed to hold up in court, which is directly relevant: if new tariffs were announced or took effect during Q2 2026, they could push the effective rate higher. Canada's response suggests these tariffs are broad and ongoing. The US-Iran military clash could also affect import flows through shipping disruptions, which would change the denominator of the calculation. That said, the specific numbers and details of the tariff announcement are not provided here, so the precise impact is unclear. The core difficulty is that this rate depends on two moving parts: how much tariff is collected, and how much is actually imported. New tariffs raise the rate, but they can also reduce imports, which changes the math in unpredictable ways. Trade deals, legal challenges, or exemptions announced between now and June 2026 could shift things significantly. The market currently prices 7%+ at about 52%, essentially a coin toss, while 5%+ sits at 91%, suggesting the market sees a high floor but genuine uncertainty about how far rates climb.

The odds right now

• 5%+93%
• 6%+87%
• 7%+51%
• 8%+45%
• 9%+27%
• 10%+17%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 30, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 of 2026 is at least equal to or higher than the listed figure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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