Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how much oil the US government has stored in its emergency stockpile, called the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), and whether that amount will drop below certain levels before late August 2026. The SPR is a set of underground salt caverns where the US keeps crude oil for emergencies. There are three separate thresholds here: 300 million barrels (very likely to be crossed, at 98%), 285 million barrels (more uncertain, at 72%), and 270 million barrels (considered unlikely, at 21%). A Yes means the stockpile drops to or below that number at least once. A No means it stays above it the whole time. Each threshold resolves Yes the moment the US Energy Information Administration, a government agency that tracks energy data, publishes a weekly report showing SPR stocks at or below that number, any week through August 28, 2026. If the stockpile never reaches a given threshold by then, that version resolves No. The market closes on September 9, 2026, to allow time for the final week's data to be published. The numbers are reported in thousands of barrels, so the math is precise, not estimated. No recent news relevant to this market was provided. The only headline supplied is about flooding in India, which has no direct connection to US oil reserves. To follow this market, the things worth watching would be: US government decisions to sell oil from the SPR, any large emergency releases, or policy changes affecting how the reserve is managed. The three thresholds carry very different levels of uncertainty. At 98%, the market is nearly certain the 300 million barrel level will be crossed, so the real question there is just whether something unexpected stops it. The 285 million level at 72% has genuine two-sided uncertainty. The 270 million level at 21% is considered unlikely but not impossible. The key unknowns are government policy on SPR sales or refills, unexpected energy shocks, and geopolitical events that could change how quickly oil is drawn down or added back.

The odds right now

• 300M+2.1 pts (1w)98%
• 285M-7.5 pts (1w)72%
• 255M-12.0 pts (1w)26%
• 270M-22.5 pts (1w)21%
• 240M-2.3 pts (1w)3%
• 225M-1.1 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 9, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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